April 2026 Freight Market Update

Global freight markets remain under significant pressure in April 2026, driven primarily by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices above $100 per barrel are flowing through into emergency bunker surcharges, multiple GRIs, and increased costs across both air and ocean freight. Supply chain managers should expect continued volatility through Q3 and Q4 2026 at minimum.

Air Freight, April 2026

Conditions have deteriorated since March. The key pressure points are space availability and fuel pricing.

US Anchorage Surcharges on Chinese Carriers

The United States is now imposing a surcharge on Chinese carriers fuelling at Anchorage Airport, one of the world’s largest cargo hubs on the transpacific lane. As a result, Chinese carriers are taking on more fuel before departure, reducing available cargo weight on outbound flights. On return legs, carriers are also flying lighter to avoid fuelling in the US. Both directions are seeing reduced capacity.

Middle East Airspace, Ongoing Congestion

Shippers are actively avoiding Middle Eastern carriers due to insurance complications. Demand has shifted to Singapore Airlines (SQ), Malaysia Airlines (MH) and Cathay Pacific (CX), which has tightened space on those carriers and pushed up pricing. Congestion across European and Middle Eastern routes remains elevated.

Outlook

No near-term improvement expected. Recovery will depend on conflict resolution, and even then, normalisation will take time.

Ocean Freight, North America

The North American ocean freight market is dealing with multiple simultaneous GRIs and delayed contract negotiations.

GRI Schedule, April 2026

• GRI effective April 1
• Additional GRI plus emergency bunker surcharge announced for April 8, varying by carrier and trade
• Further GRI announced for April 15

These increases are directly tied to rising oil prices. Goldman Sachs has forecast oil to remain above $100 per barrel through the remainder of 2026, with some US airlines already cutting capacity in anticipation of fuel above $100 per barrel into 2027. Energy infrastructure damage in the Middle East means oil prices are unlikely to fall quickly even if the conflict ends.

Named Account Contract Negotiations

The standard May 1 implementation date for annual named account pricing (NAC) contracts is expected to slip by approximately two weeks. Carriers delayed BCO contract finalisation due to market uncertainty, which has pushed NVOCC negotiations back in turn. Shippers on existing named account rates should expect extensions through mid-May.

Economic Context

Oil above $100 per barrel is reigniting US inflation concerns. Economists are increasingly flagging recession risk. Consumer spending is softening, which is weighing on demand even as costs rise.

Ocean Freight, Oceania and Australia

The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed to most commercial vessels, with limited exceptions based on vessel flag and relationships with the Iranian state. The direct impact on Oceania trades is more contained than on air freight, as the primary disruption is to intra-Gulf and regional trades rather than Asia-Oceania lanes.

Port Congestion

Congestion has increased at adjacent ports including Indian ports, Colombo, and Gulf ports outside the Strait (Wahhan, Hodeidah in Yemen, Jeddah). Delays are currently estimated at 2 to 3 days but could extend to a week or more depending on how the situation develops.

Rates into Australia

Carriers have introduced emergency fuel surcharges (EFS) across the board. On FAK (spot) rates, increases have been moderate as carriers are reluctant to price themselves out of a market that is in its traditional slack season. Demand into Oceania is currently soft but within normal seasonal expectations.

Named Account Customers, Q3/Q4 Surcharge Warning

Bunker adjustment factors (BAF) on named account contracts operate retroactively. Contracts renewed from April 1 may not reflect increased bunker costs immediately, but carriers are expected to pass those costs through in Q3 and Q4 2026. Named account customers should factor this into their cost planning now.

Capacity into Oceania

Asia to Oceania capacity has increased approximately 12% year on year according to Alphaliner data. No major blank sailings were recorded in March or April following Chinese New Year. The combination of increased capacity and soft demand has kept FAK rates from rising as sharply as the announced EFS levels might suggest.

Key Numbers, April 2026

Contributors

Alana Raitt, Global Director of Air Freight

Dave Burns, CEO North America

Ioannis Papanthimos, Head of Ocean Product