March 2026 Freight Market Update

March 2026 marks the beginning of significant freight market disruption following the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East. Air freight capacity has been heavily impacted by airspace closures across the Gulf region. Ocean freight markets are responding with multiple GRIs on transpacific lanes, and the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz is being closely watched as a major risk to global oil supply and bunker costs. Supply chain managers should expect continued volatility and are advised to act on forecasting and carrier strategy now.

Air Freight, March 2026

The Middle East conflict has caused immediate and significant disruption to air freight capacity, particularly for Australian shippers moving cargo to and from Europe and the Middle East.

Gulf Hub Disruptions

The primary carriers affected are Emirates, Qatar Airways and Etihad, all of which hub through Dubai, Doha and Abu Dhabi respectively. Most normal passenger schedules through these hubs are suspended. A limited number of emergency flight corridors have been established by UAE and neighbouring regulators, allowing approximately 78 flights per hour to operate on safe routes avoiding conflict zones. These corridors can be closed at any time depending on conditions on the ground.

Aircraft Availability and the Roll-On Effect

Aircraft that have flown into Australia from affected hubs are now grounded, as they cannot return to their home bases. This is creating scheduling disruptions and capacity shortfalls that extend beyond the Middle East region. An aircraft sitting in Melbourne that would normally depart to China or the US in the coming days may be unavailable, creating flow-on effects across multiple lanes globally.

China to US Lanes

Currently less directly affected, as most Chinese carriers and carriers such as Cathay Pacific, Singapore Airlines, UPS and Polar do not transit through the Middle East on transpacific routes. However, if capacity continues to be pulled from the broader market, demand will concentrate on those carriers, pushing prices up on those lanes as well.

Pricing

No direct price impact has been recorded yet on affected routes, as bookings on Emirates, Etihad and Qatar are simply not available. War surcharges and elevated fuel surcharges are expected to be introduced in the coming weeks once schedules reopen.

Outlook

If the conflict continues beyond a few weeks, expect pricing increases and capacity tightening to spread beyond Middle East routes into other lanes and regions.

Ocean Freight, North America

The transpacific market is navigating a combination of weak underlying demand and escalating surcharge pressure driven by the Middle East conflict.

GRI Activity, March 2026

• A small GRI at the start of March has taken hold and is expected to be maintained
• Carriers have announced significant GRIs for 15 March, citing the Iran conflict, with announced rates of approximately $5,000 to the US West Coast and $6,000 to the US East Coast
• Most carrier partners do not believe demand is strong enough to sustain these increases at current levels

Named Account Contract Negotiations

Rate indications for named account pricing to both US coasts and IPI locations were positive earlier in the week, but carriers are now retracting offers and delaying finalisation due to the conflict. Contract completion is expected to push into April, with timing dependent on how the Middle East situation evolves.

Strait of Hormuz Risk

20% of the world’s oil supply moves through the Strait of Hormuz. Janet Yellen, former US Treasury Secretary and Fed Chair, keynoted at TPM26 and stated that a closure of the Strait for more than five days would represent the largest disruption to global oil distribution ever recorded. Current indications from the US administration suggest the conflict could last four to six weeks or more. If the Strait is impacted, bunker charges will increase significantly, flowing directly into ocean freight costs.

Demand Outlook

Demand remains weak. Importers and NVOCCs attending TPM26 expressed limited optimism for the year, which is broadly positive for shippers from a pricing perspective. However, surcharge volatility is offsetting any benefit from soft base rates.

Ocean Freight, Oceania and Australia

For Australian shippers, the impact of the Middle East conflict breaks into two distinct groups.

Shippers Trading Directly with the Middle East

Trade to and from the Middle East is effectively halted. Most carriers are not accepting cargo into the region. For cargo already laden on vessels destined for Middle Eastern ports, the likely outcome is diversion to an adjacent port, with onward delivery becoming the shipper’s responsibility. All affected customers are advised to check the status of their shipments on a case by case basis.

Shippers Not Trading Directly with the Middle East

Three indirect impacts are expected.

First, bunker costs have already begun rising and are expected to continue increasing as long as the conflict continues. Carriers will pass these through to customers via bunker surcharges, increasing the total cost of freight regardless of trade lane.

Second, port congestion is expected to build at major Southeast Asian transshipment hubs including Singapore and Colombo, as carriers redirect cargo away from Middle Eastern ports to these alternatives.

Third, equipment imbalances are emerging. Approximately 450,000 TEU of containers are currently trapped in the Middle East region and unable to move. This is expected to create some equipment availability pressure over the coming weeks.

Capacity into Oceania

No major capacity disruptions are anticipated on Asia-Oceania lanes at this stage. The current situation is not considered as structurally significant for containerised freight on these lanes as the Suez Canal closure was, given that most vessels are already routing via Africa. However, any future discussion of Suez Canal reopening will need to be revisited in this new context.

Note: air freight is more severely impacted than sea freight given the Middle East’s role as a global aviation hub.

Key Numbers, March 2026

Contributors

Alana Raitt, Global Director of Air Freight

Dave Burns, CEO North America

Ioannis Papanthimos, Head of Ocean Product