May 2026 Freight Market Update

May 2026 brings continued volatility across ocean freight, with transpacific GRIs, blank sailings and rising fuel surcharges shaping conditions into the US, Australia and New Zealand. Named account contract negotiations continue against a backdrop of Strait of Hormuz disruption, while importers are pulling forward stock ahead of expected rate increases. Full breakdown below for the US, Australia and New Zealand markets.

Ocean Freight, North America

Capacity

Capacity to the East Coast and West Coast remains relatively open due to low demand. Carriers continue to announce blank sailings, but this isn’t resolving the imbalance given how soft demand remains.

Emergency Bunker Surcharges (EBS) were implemented by most carriers, effective 8 April. Carriers have announced another GRI for 15 April, not due to increased demand or reduced capacity, but driven by the ongoing Middle East conflict. Concerns are growing around oil scarcity in certain regions, which will continue to impact both ocean and air freight pricing.

Space is tight across the Transpacific Eastbound (TPEB) trade on both coasts. Carriers are redeploying vessels for summer schedules alongside a wave of blank sailings, and the market saw a demand surge ahead of 1 May as importers advanced purchase orders to beat expected Bunker Adjustment Factor (BAF) increases. A smaller peak also ran through ahead of the Chinese Labour Day holiday.

The East Coast is feeling the squeeze more than the West Coast, though neither direction has meaningful slack. Carriers are expected to implement a significant GRI in mid-May, with estimates in the range of $500 to $750 per FEU. If you have bookings that can be confirmed before the GRI lands, now is the time.

Blank Sailings

Blank sailings are a key driver of the current tightness. Carriers are pulling capacity ahead of summer schedule restructuring, reducing the number of available vessels on key TPEB services. With space already constrained, blank sailings are compressing availability further, particularly on East Coast routings.

Rates

Carrier Performance

For a look at carrier transit time performance into LAX and NY/NJ over the past three months, contact your Navia team member for the latest carrier-level breakdown for your lane.

Ocean Freight, Oceania and Australia

Capacity

April delivered the most disrupted capacity picture in months, driven almost entirely by an aggressive wave of blank sailings rather than any underlying demand shift.

Space ex Asia to AU/OCE remained generally available with only minor exceptions, and demand has yet to show any meaningful uptick. The Middle East situation and rising local cost of living continue to weigh on import volumes.

The bigger structural news is that SeaLead has exited the AU trade. That removes roughly 5,000 TEU of weekly capacity from the lane, which the remaining carriers will now need to absorb. We’re watching closely to see how that gap is filled and how it shapes pricing leverage over the coming weeks.

Blank Sailings

Blank sailings from every major carrier left space ex North East Asia (NEA) genuinely tight through the first half of May.

That tightness was the lever carriers needed. FAK rates lifted meaningfully and General Rate Increases (GRIs) ex NEA pushed through successfully, the first time in months that several carriers have made GRIs stick.

For the second half of May, no major capacity issues are expected, but carriers will keep pushing for further GRIs while they have momentum. Bookings made now should be confirmed against the rate level expected at sailing, not the level quoted last week.

Rates

Carrier Performance

Average transit times to Sydney and Fremantle have been reviewed against schedule over the past three months. Speak to your Navia account manager for the full carrier-level breakdown.

Sea Freight Outlook

There’s little hope for an immediate resolution to the Hormuz situation, and that continues to be the dominant variable for global capacity planning. Around 2% of global capacity is affected each week by congestion linked to the disruption, but operationally the situation remains viable, with carriers routing around it.

For Asia to OCE specifically, no significant capacity amendments are currently expected beyond the SeaLead exit already noted.

Air Freight Outlook

The Middle East conflict continues to weigh heavily on air freight. With one of the largest global air freight hubs sitting at the centre of the disruption, trade flows in and out of Europe are still heavily impacted. Other air hubs are absorbing the volume, but the regional airspace closure is extending flight times, lifting fuel costs, and tightening overall capacity.

Ocean Freight, New Zealand

Rates

Market stability at the global index level is holding for now, though the pressure being applied via GRIs on specific trade lanes, including AUNZ, is worth watching closely through May. Rates from Shanghai to New Zealand have lifted from April levels, driven by the blank sailing activity and successful GRI push in the first half of May.

Carrier Performance

Carrier performance into Auckland (AKL) over the past three months has been mixed.

Speak to your Navia account manager to confirm which service best fits your cargo requirements and lead time expectations.

Contributors

Dave Burns, CEO North America

Ioannis Papanthimos, Head of Ocean Product