October Freight Market Update

October opens with freight rates out of China sharply higher than a year ago on every lane in this update: up 142% into Australia, 191% into New Zealand, and 677% and 376% into the US West and East Coasts. Consecutive typhoons have left major Chinese and Southeast Asian hubs congested, Shanghai berthing waits for US-bound vessels are averaging 14 days, and Panama Canal draft restrictions continue to cut US East Coast capacity. With FAK rates typically rising after Golden Week, here’s what’s moving in Australia, New Zealand and the United States this month, and what it means for your bookings.

Ocean Freight, Australia

China to Australia: October at a Glance

Across weeks 41 to 45 (w/c 5 October to 2 November 2026), carriers are offering 318,786 TEU from China to Australia, with 13,251 TEU, or 4.2% of capacity on offer, already blanked.

Source: Xeneta, Linerlytica, Navia transit data.

Capacity Looks Robust, but Schedules Are Still Recovering

Capacity out of Asia into Australia stayed healthy through September. However, consecutive typhoons created a knock-on effect, with significant delays at major Chinese hubs and at Southeast Asian ports too. October capacity also looks robust, and we’re hopeful the Golden Week lull will give carriers room to bring some services back onto their original proforma schedules.

Blank Sailings, China to Australia

Blankings are concentrated at the turn of the month. In week 40 (w/c 28 September), the A3S string (ANL, OOCL, COSCO), the AAX-E/EAC/S2A/AU2 service (CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd, Maersk) and Maersk’s Qilin all had sailings blanked. Week 41 (w/c 5 October) sees a blank on the AUN/Dragon service (ONE, Maersk), followed by PIL and OOCL’s AAA1 in week 42 (w/c 12 October).

Access to Space

Sea freight from China remains the tightest lane into Australia and New Zealand, for both space and equipment. Southeast Asia is also tight on space, with equipment balanced. Sea freight from the USA and Europe is in better shape, and on the air side, Europe to ANZ is currently the tightest lane.

Good supply: book 2 weeks ahead. Balanced: book 3 weeks ahead. Tight supply: book 4 weeks ahead.

Rates

The Drewry World Container Index rose and then dipped over the past four weeks, and currently sits at 4,434 USD per 40ft. The Shanghai Containerised Freight Index shows market rates from Shanghai (CNSHA) at 3,687 on the global index and 2,833 USD/TEU on the AUNZ index. Xeneta’s intelligence puts the Shanghai to Australia rate at approximately 2,901 USD/TEU, a raw freight rate excluding surcharges and local charges.

Fastest on the Water Isn’t Fastest Overall

When you add origin departure delays to actual sailing time, the ranking of the 11 services from Shanghai to Australia changes noticeably. Maersk’s Qilin is the clear leader at 16.1 days (12.2 days in transit plus 3.9 days of origin delay). The Panda/ZAX service (MSC, GSL, ZIM) is the biggest climber, jumping from sixth on transit time to second overall at 20.9 days, because it averages only 1.4 days of origin delay. MSC’s Wallaby goes the other way: it’s the second-fastest service on the water, but 8.3 days of origin delay drops it to sixth overall.

Carrier Performance

Average transit times to Sydney and Fremantle over the last three months remain uneven by string. Several services are running four to nearly seven days behind schedule, while cancellation rates are high across the board, reaching 83% on the A3N rotation and 67% on Panda/ZAX this month.

Ocean Freight, New Zealand

China to New Zealand: October at a Glance

Across weeks 41 to 45 (w/c 5 October to 2 November 2026), carriers are offering 52,651 TEU from China to New Zealand. Of that, 2,882 TEU, or 5.5% of capacity on offer, has been blanked, all of it in week 45.

Source: Xeneta (short-term 20DC market average, rates as of 4 October 2026), Navia transit data.

Capacity Remains Healthy, Schedules Less So

Capacity out of Asia into Oceania stayed healthy through September, but the same run of typhoons affecting Australia has caused significant delays at major Chinese and Southeast Asian hubs. October capacity into New Zealand also looks robust, and the Golden Week lull should give carriers a chance to bring some services back onto their original proforma schedules.

Access to Space

Sea freight space from China and Southeast Asia into New Zealand is tight, with equipment balanced on both lanes. Sea freight from the USA and Europe has good space, and Europe to ANZ remains the tightest air lane.

Good supply: book 2 weeks ahead. Balanced: book 3 weeks ahead. Tight supply: book 4 weeks ahead.

Fuel Adjustment Factor Starts to Rise Again

Following several months of reductions, average Fuel Adjustment Factor (FAF) rates have started to increase again in recent weeks. We’re monitoring this closely and will keep clients updated on any significant movement.

Rates

The Drewry World Container Index sits at 4,434 USD per 40ft after rising and then dipping over the past four weeks. The Shanghai Containerised Freight Index shows the AUNZ index at 2,833 USD/TEU. Xeneta’s data puts the Shanghai to New Zealand rate at approximately 3,186 USD/TEU, a raw freight rate excluding surcharges and local charges.

Service Performance: Speed Versus Reliability

Three services run from Shanghai to Auckland, and the trade-off this month is between speed and reliability. Maersk’s Northern Star is the fastest overall at 22.3 days (18.4 days in transit plus 3.9 days of origin delay), but 46% of its scheduled sailings were cancelled. The JKN/JSTAR service (COSCO, Maersk, ONE, OOCL) is the most reliable, with only 21% of sailings cancelled, but also the slowest at 29.3 days overall.

Carrier Performance

Two of the three Auckland services are arriving ahead of their scheduled transit time once they sail, but every service is losing between 3.9 and 5.8 days to origin delays.

Average transit times, last 3 months, Shanghai to Auckland (in days).

Ocean Freight, United States

China to the US: October at a Glance

Across weeks 41 to 45 (w/c 5 October to 2 November 2026), carriers are offering 2,673,694 TEU from China across both US coasts, and 362,234 TEU, or 13.5%, has been blanked. The East Coast is hit harder, with 15.3% of capacity blanked compared with 12.7% on the West Coast.

Source: Xeneta. Capacity, plus short-term 40DC market average rates as of 4 October 2026.

US East Coast: Rates Firm, With Further Rises Likely

US East Coast rates are expected to remain firm through the first half of October and could rise further in the second half. Rates continue to escalate because carriers are tightly managing USEC space, typhoons have congested Chinese ports, and draft restrictions are limiting Panama Canal transits. The biggest factor to watch is berthing time in East China, where vessels are waiting an average of 14 days in Shanghai. Carriers have announced 20 blank sailings for the USEC and Gulf across weeks 40 to 43.

US West Coast: Weather and Congestion Driving Rates

West Coast rates are also expected to hold firm through the first half of October, with further increases possible in the second half. Here, the main drivers are typhoons and origin port congestion, including the same 14-day average berthing wait in Shanghai. With Panama Canal draft issues continuing, we expect more cargo to move via the West Coast and inland by rail, adding to West Coast demand. Carriers have announced 27 blank sailings for the USWC (Pacific Southwest and Pacific Northwest) across weeks 40 to 43.

Access to Space

Sea freight space from Asia is tight into both US coasts, with equipment balanced. India to the US West Coast is the easiest lane this month, with good space and equipment, while India to the East Coast and Gulf is balanced on space. Air freight from China to the US is balanced.

Good supply: book 2 weeks ahead. Balanced: book 3 weeks ahead. Tight supply: book 4 weeks ahead.

Rates

The Shanghai Containerised Freight Index shows market rates from Shanghai (CNSHA) at 7,463 USD/FEU to the US West Coast and 10,497 USD/FEU to the US East Coast. Xeneta’s index shows average market rates from CNSHA at 7,649 USD/FEU to the West Coast and 10,722 USD/FEU to the East Coast. Both indices reflect freight rates only and exclude BAF, PSS and other surcharges.

Fastest on the Water Isn’t Fastest Overall

Adding origin departure delays to sailing time reshuffles the rankings on both coasts. Into Los Angeles and Long Beach, Matson’s MAX leads at 11.8 days, just ahead of the CLX/NAF service (Matson, Hapag-Lloyd, Maersk) at 12.0 days. The PS4 service is fourth-fastest on the water, but 12.7 days of origin delay drops it to eleventh. Into New York and New Jersey, the Ocean Alliance’s USEC8 leads at 36.6 days, while USEC2 is the fastest on the water but falls to third once its 9.4 days of origin delay is counted.

Carrier Performance: Los Angeles

Most Los Angeles services are arriving close to schedule once they sail, but origin delays vary widely, from almost nothing on CMA CGM’s EXX and ZIM’s ZX2 to 12.7 days on PS4. Cancellation rates reach 50% on PS3 and 42% on MTE.

Transit times, last 3 months, Shanghai to Los Angeles (in days). A dash means no actual sailings were recorded.

Carrier Performance: Long Beach

Matson’s MAX and the CLX/NAF service remain the benchmark into Long Beach, both arriving in around 11 to 12 days with no cancellations. Elsewhere, origin delays of eight to ten days are common, and the CPX service (HMM, SM Line) had half of its sailings cancelled.

Transit times, last 3 months, Shanghai to Long Beach (in days). A dash means no actual sailings were recorded.

Carrier Performance: New York and New Jersey

East Coast services into New York and New Jersey are running behind schedule more often than not. The Premier Alliance’s EC1 is nearly ten days slower than scheduled, and cancellation rates are high, reaching 60% on EC2 and 50% on the Empire/ZNS service. USEC4 is the most reliable option, with only 8% of sailings cancelled.

Transit times, last 3 months, Shanghai to New York and New Jersey (in days).