June 2026 Freight Market Update

June 2026 brings a notable shift in market dynamics. After months of soft demand, transpacific volumes have surged unexpectedly, driven by importers frontloading stock ahead of anticipated second-half disruption, Amazon Prime Day moving forward, and a rush to ship under old NAC rates before new tariffs took effect. Carriers have capitalised on the tighter capacity to push rates significantly higher. Into Australia, Northeast Asia is experiencing consecutive weeks of rollovers with vessel utilisation above 110%. Air freight is entering peak season earlier than usual, with space constrained and rates elevated. The outlook beyond July is for demand to ease, but fuel surcharges and Middle East uncertainty remain persistent variables.

Ocean Freight, North America

Demand Shift Since May

A market that was running soft just 6 to 8 weeks ago has seen an unexpected and significant surge in demand on transpacific eastbound lanes. This has allowed carriers to push through GRIs into 1 June that are holding firm, a reversal from the pattern of earlier months where announced increases were not fully sustained.

Three Factors Driving the Demand Spike

First, importers are frontloading stock. Facing expectations of continued market difficulty through the second half of 2026, a growing number of importers have pulled purchase orders forward to get product moving before anticipated further cost increases and supply chain disruption.

Second, the NAC transition window. Many importers rushed to ship under old named account rates before new carrier pricing, which depending on the carrier took effect between 15 May and 1 June, locked in. This created a concentrated burst of volume in a short window.

Third, Amazon Prime Day moved forward by approximately three weeks, pulling forward inventory requirements for a significant number of importers who needed product in market ahead of the event.

Capacity Outlook, June into July

Carriers have continued to implement blank sailings through June, but several, including Maersk and ONE, have begun announcing extra loaders into the transpacific eastbound market, primarily into Los Angeles and Long Beach. Additional capacity is expected to come online from early July, which should begin to alleviate the current demand pressure and work through the backlog.

Demand Forecast

Long-range demand forecasts remain relatively weak. The retail federation is forecasting year-over-year declines of 5 to 8% into Q3. The current spike is expected to be a short-term influx rather than a structural shift. Pricing is expected to ease from current elevated levels as we move into July. The traditional peak season as a defined window is increasingly less relevant, with importers becoming more agile and moving production quickly in response to supply chain risk rather than following historical seasonal patterns.

Named Account Pricing and Peak Season Surcharges

Carriers on the NAC side have begun announcing and implementing peak season surcharges to capture the benefit of the current demand window.

Middle East and Fuel

A resolution to the Middle East conflict, even an initial memorandum of understanding extending the ceasefire for 60 days and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, would begin to relieve the oil supply bottleneck that has persisted for the past three months. However, an immediate reduction in fuel surcharges should not be expected. The supply chain will need time to normalise even after a deal is reached.

Ocean Freight, Oceania and Australia

Northeast Asia into Australia, Tight and Getting Tighter

Space out of Northeast Asia into Australia is extremely constrained. Vessels are sitting at utilisation rates above 110% and consecutive weeks of rollovers are affecting almost all carriers on the China-Australia corridor. What initially appeared to be a capacity issue driven by blank sailings and port omissions has been confirmed as a demand issue. This is effectively an early peak season for the Australia trade.

Capacity into Oceania from China remains consistently above 100,000 TEU per week on paper, which should be sufficient. The issue is demand outpacing that capacity. Several carriers have announced new services and extra loaders out of China into Oceania, which is expected to begin clearing the backlog as we move into July.

Southeast Asia into Australia

A different picture. Southeast Asia lanes are considerably more stable, with rates not increasing significantly and any rollovers being isolated rather than systematic.

Europe to Australia

No major structural issues to report. However, European summer conditions are worth watching. Low water levels have been reported on the Rhine River, and a super El Nino weather pattern has been flagged which could affect water levels at the connecting rivers feeding major North European ports including Rotterdam and Hamburg. If water levels drop further, additional delays at these ports are possible. A watch and see situation for now.

Rates and Surcharges into Australia

The Shanghai Containerised Freight Index has increased consistently over recent weeks, reflecting the broader tightening in the China-Oceania corridor. Bunker-related surcharges remain in place across all carriers as a direct consequence of the ongoing Strait of Hormuz situation. These are expected to remain until there is meaningful progress toward a resolution of the Middle East conflict. No reliable timeline can be given for when they will ease.

Air Freight, June 2026

Middle East Recovery, Partial but Constrained

Emirates and Qatar have resumed flying following the period of full airspace closure, providing some recovery in capacity. However, meaningful capacity has still been taken out of the global market relative to pre-conflict levels, and this is continuing to put upward pressure on rates and space availability globally.

Early Peak Season

Air freight is entering peak season earlier than typical. Demand that would normally build from August to September is already pushing forward, as shippers try to get ahead of fuel surcharge changes and capitalise on whatever space is available before rates climb further. 2026 peak season is expected to be difficult to manage given capacity is already constrained and fuel costs are elevated heading into it.

Asia to Australia

Space on main deck services into Australia is tight. With Emirates and Qatar capacity still reduced, demand has concentrated on carriers including Cathay Pacific and Singapore Airlines, which are under significant pressure. Bookings on Chinese carriers are frequently sitting on standby at origin airports for several days before moving. E-commerce cargo, which takes priority over general cargo, is adding further pressure to available space.

China to USA

Rates are currently sitting at approximately US$7 per kilogram, approximately $2 above where they would typically be at this time of year. Fuel costs, which were climbing week on week, have stabilised over the past few weeks. However, with peak season approaching, the Amazon rush, Black Friday, and pre-Christmas demand are all still ahead. Rates are unlikely to fall from current levels and are more likely to increase as the year progresses.

Key Numbers, June 2026

Contributors

Dave Burns, CEO North America

Ioannis Papanthimos, Head of Ocean Product

Alana Raitt, Global Director of Air Freight